Jonathan J. Higuera
The Arizona Republic

The median sales price of an existing home in metropolitan Phoenix is about 20 percent, or nearly $44,000, higher than the national median price for a previously owned home, according to figures released Monday.

The National Association of Realtors reported that the national median sales price of an existing single-family home sold in October was $216,200. In metropolitan Phoenix, the median price was $259,900.

“Historically we’ve been below the national median, but we’ve rapidly moved ahead,” said Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University Polytechnic. “It raises issues of affordability.”

The Valley’s skyrocketing home prices were reflected in the October median price of an existing home, which was up 44 percent from the same period a year ago. Nationally, the median sales price rose 16.6 percent.

But the region’s housing market may be cooling, some housing analysts said, noting how the existing-home median price dropped last month for the first time since December 2003. Sales also declined from the previous month, though Valley resale home activity is still expected to break last year’s record.

Nationally, sales of previously owned homes fell 2.7 percent from September, which some housing analysts interpreted as evidence of a slowing housing market. But the sales were still above October 2004 numbers.

Locally, 8,420 existing homes were sold in October, down 14 percent from September and much lower than the June peak of 11,500 homes sold.

Nationally, total housing inventory of existing homes still for sale at the end of October rose 3.5 percent to 2.87 million, or nearly a five-month supply at current housing prices, the Realtors association reported.

In metropolitan Phoenix through October, 97,165 previously owned homes were sold, compared with 84,555 for the same period last year.

“The simple reality is we can’t sustain the pace we’ve been at,” Butler said.

Nationally, home sales and prices appear to be cooling, he said, but each market needs to be evaluated on its own merits.

“The issue is where do you stand,” he said. “Are you past the peak or in a cooling or transition period?”

The Valley’s housing market appears to be in a cooling off period, he added, but it’s still too early to definitively say.

Homes were still selling briskly, despite longer periods between sales and flattening prices, Butler said.

“We’re moving to a more normal pace than what we’ve seen,” he said.

David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, predicted that housing activity would cool further in coming months if, as expected, the Federal Reserve keeps pushing interest rates higher to combat rising inflation pressures that have been triggered by a surge in energy prices.

Those price increases have contributed to a rise in mortgage rates, though rates retreated a bit last week to 6.28 percent from 6.37 percent the previous week, the highest level in two years.

“We feel confident that housing is landing softly as rates continue to rise,” Lereah said.